Multiple airports in Denmark have been disrupted by drones this week in what its government says is a hybrid attack by unknown professional actors, as the country considers whether to invoke NATOs Article 4 for the first time in its history.
Speculation is rife that Moscow could be behind the incursions, as Danish authorities say they are linked with recent alleged violations of NATO airspace in Poland and Romania by Russian drones.
Russias Embassy in Denmark has denied any Russian involvement, saying Thursday that it rejects the absurd speculation.
Europe is already on high alert over the series of airspace breaches by Kremlin drones and aircraft. Poland requested Article 4 consultations with NATO after Russian drones penetrated its airspace and that of Romania in separate incidents earlier this month, while Estonia also did so after Russian MiG31 fighter jets entered its airspace without permission on Friday. Article 4 requires NATO states to hold talks when the territorial integrity, political independence or security of a member is threatened.
What took place during this weeks drone sightings in Denmark C and what are the potential risks?
Whats happened?
On Monday, sightings of two or three large drones near Copenhagen airport halted all takeoffs and landings there for nearly four hours.
Two days later, on Wednesday night, drones forced the closure of a second Danish airport, when Aalborg airport in the countrys north was shut for three hours after more than one drone was seen flying nearby. Drones were also observed overnight into Thursday near Danish airports in Esbjerg, Sonderborg, and Skrydstrup, according to Danish news outlet TV2. Billund Airport was also briefly closed due to reports of drone activity.
In neighboring Norway, the airspace over Oslo Airport was closed for around three hours Tuesday morning due to a separate drone sighting.
The incidents follow a major cyberattack at a provider of check-in and boarding systems over the weekend, which disrupted operations at several of Europes busiest airports, including Londons Heathrow.
Who is behind the drones?
We dont know yet C and Danish authorities say its too soon to tell. However, the countrys top officials have suggested Russia could be to blame.
At Thursdays news conference, Denmarks Minister of Defense Troels Lund Poulsen acknowledged the incursions must have been carried out by a professional actor. He said that it was part of a systematic operation, but the drones had been launched locally. Poulsen added that there is currently no evidence that Russia is behind the incidents.
Earlier, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described Mondays incident at Copenhagen airport as the most serious attack yet on Denmarks critical infrastructure, and linked it to the drone breaches by Russia in Poland and Romania.
If Russia is behind this, a key question remains over who exactly is launching the drones; Russian security services themselves, or criminal elements acting on behalf of the Russian state.
The concept of Russia recruiting criminal actors on European soil is nothing new. In his annual speech on security threats facing the UK in October 2024, Ken McCallum , director-general of British intelligence service MI5, warned that state actors C particularly Russia and Iran C are increasingly recruiting criminal elements including petty criminals to carry out hostile acts on British and European streets.
Little is known yet about what kind of drones were used in Denmarks sightings. However, the use of high-tech drones is becoming more widespread as the technology develops, making it difficult to draw conclusions as to those responsible. Drone technology has become very sophisticated. A lot of people are trained and use drones almost for recreational purposes, so this isnt now the preserve of elite, state-based actors, Arnold said.
Whats the motive?
Denmark says the main intention with such incidents is to sow fear.
The goal with this kind of hybrid attack is to create fear and divisions, and make us scared, Justice Minister Peter Hummelgaard told Thursdays conference.
Hybrid attacks, according to NATO, are used to blur the lines between war and peace. Methods include propaganda, deception, sabotage and other non-military tactics, the alliance says.
Edward Arnold, a senior research fellow for European security at UK defense and security think tank RUSI, says Russia would have reason to single out Denmark specifically.
Their (the Danish) rhetoric is very anti-Russian at the moment due to the war in Ukraine. They are a steadfast supporter of Ukraine and over the last couple of years they have done more than most European nations. If you look at it by GDP, for a small nation they are one of the leaders in Europe for supporting Ukraine, he told CNN.
Therefore, he believes there could be a Russian signaling element to it, with Moscow trying to warn Copenhagen off its support for Ukraine.
If Russia is behind the attacks, the goal could simply be to cause disruption.
The Russians do this all the time. Theyre happy just disrupting and being a nuisance, as a baseline, Arnold said.
Another, more serious, long-term concern is that, while the drone incursions this week have been relatively minor and aimed at disruption, they could be a practice run, or a perfection of the technique, for causing more serious damage in future, potentially with armed drones, Arnold said.
Going forward, its not implausible that similar drone sightings and disruptions could be seen in other countries.
What do the Russians, and Iranians for that matter, do when they are successful at certain operations? They replicate them, Arnold said.
They are also more likely to occur at times which cause maximum disruption, such as around Christmas and summer holidays, he believes. Criminal elements, drone pilots being a nuisance, it is a very difficult area to protect against,
How can they be stopped?
As well as closing affected airports, there are other measures that can be taken to protect against drone disruptions.
Shooting down drones is possible C although this was ruled out in Denmark this week after the armed forces assessed it would be too risky for civilian populations.
Shooting down drones runs the risk of missing the target, Arnold explained. If that shot misses the drone, that bullet is going to go somewhere else, and it could pose a risk to the public.
In comparison, if a drone was armed and had the ability to cause widespread damage, armed forces would be much more likely to take action to shoot the device down.
Another option is drone jamming C which uses electronic signals to disrupt the devices contact with its operator and can render it uncontrollable or force it to land.
Other methods include sending counter-drones with nets to capture the devices, and even training eagles and other birds of prey to take them down. In 2016, it emerged that Dutch police were deploying eagles after training them to take down unauthorized drones.
本周，丹麦多个机场因无人机干扰而瘫痪，该国政府称这是由未知专业组织发起的“混合攻击”。与此同时，丹麦正考虑是否在其历史上首次援引《北约宪章》第四条。
丹麦当局称，这些入侵事件与近期俄罗斯无人机涉嫌侵犯波兰和罗马尼亚的北约领空事件有关，因此外界普遍猜测莫斯科可能是幕后黑手。
俄罗斯驻丹麦大使馆否认俄方参与相关事件，并于周四驳斥了这一“荒谬的猜测”。
欧洲已对克里姆林宫无人机及军机多次侵犯领空事件保持高度警戒。本月早些时候，俄罗斯无人机先后侵入波兰和罗马尼亚领空，波兰随即援引《北大西洋公约》第四条要求与北约展开磋商；而爱沙尼亚也在周五俄罗斯米格-31战机未经许可闯入其领空后采取了相同行动。根据北约第四条规定，当成员国的“领土完整、政治独立或安全”受到威胁时，各盟国必须进行协商。
本周丹麦发生的无人机目击事件究竟是怎么回事？潜在风险又有哪些？
发生什么事了？
周一，哥本哈根机场附近发现两三架大型无人机，导致该机场所有航班起降暂停近四小时。
两天后，周三晚间，无人机再次迫使丹麦第二座机场关闭。该国北部的奥尔堡机场因附近出现"多架无人机"而暂停运营三小时。据丹麦TV2电视台报道，从周三夜间至周四凌晨，埃斯比约、森讷堡和斯克吕斯楚普等地的丹麦机场附近也发现了无人机活动。比隆机场亦因无人机活动报告短暂关闭。
邻国挪威的奥斯陆机场空域因发现不明无人机，于周二早晨关闭约三小时。
此前，一家提供值机和登机系统的供应商在周末遭遇重大网络攻击，导致包括伦敦希思罗机场在内的欧洲多个最繁忙机场运营中断。
无人机背后的操控者是谁？
目前我们尚不清楚——丹麦当局表示现在下结论为时过早。但该国高级官员暗示，俄罗斯可能是幕后黑手。
在周四的新闻发布会上，丹麦国防部长特洛尔斯·伦德·保尔森承认，这些入侵行为必定是由“专业行为者”实施的。他表示这是“系统性行动”的一部分，但无人机是从当地发射的。保尔森补充说，目前没有证据表明俄罗斯是这些事件的幕后黑手。
此前，丹麦首相梅特·弗雷泽里克森将周一哥本哈根机场事件描述为迄今为止对丹麦关键基础设施最严重的“攻击”，并将其与俄罗斯在波兰和罗马尼亚的无人机入侵事件联系起来。
若俄罗斯是幕后主使，关键问题仍在于无人机的具体发射者：究竟是俄罗斯安全部门亲自所为，还是代表俄国家利益的犯罪集团所为。
俄罗斯在欧洲本土招募犯罪分子的做法并非新鲜事。英国军情五处（MI5）局长肯·麦卡勒姆在2024年10月关于英国面临安全威胁的年度演讲中警告称，国家行为体——尤其是俄罗斯和伊朗——正越来越多地招募包括轻微罪犯在内的犯罪人员，在英国及欧洲街头实施敌对行动。
目前尚不清楚丹麦目击事件中使用的无人机具体类型。然而，随着技术的发展，高科技无人机的使用正变得越来越普遍，这使得很难确定责任方。阿诺德表示：“无人机技术已变得非常精密。许多人经过培训后几乎将无人机用于娱乐目的，因此这已不再是精英或国家行为体的专属领域。”
动机是什么？
丹麦表示，此类事件的主要意图是散布恐惧。
司法部长彼得·胡梅尔高在周四的会议上表示："此类混合攻击的目的是制造恐惧与分裂，让我们陷入恐慌。"
北约表示，混合攻击旨在“模糊战争与和平的界限”。该联盟称，此类手段包括宣传、欺骗、破坏及其他非军事策略。
英国皇家联合军种国防研究所（RUSI）欧洲安全问题高级研究员爱德华·阿诺德表示，俄罗斯有理由特别针对丹麦。
他告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）："当前，由于乌克兰战争，（丹麦的）言论非常反俄。丹麦是乌克兰的坚定支持者，过去几年里，他们比大多数欧洲国家做得更多。如果按国内生产总值（GDP）来衡量，作为一个小国，丹麦是欧洲支持乌克兰的领先国家之一。"
因此，他认为这可能是俄罗斯的一种‘信号’手段，莫斯科试图借此警告哥本哈根停止对乌克兰的支持。
若这些袭击事件系俄罗斯所为，其目的可能仅仅是为了制造混乱。
阿诺德表示：“俄罗斯人一贯如此。他们的底线就是乐于搞破坏和制造麻烦。”
阿诺德表示，另一个更严重且长期的担忧是，尽管本周的无人机入侵事件规模相对较小且旨在制造混乱，但它们可能是未来使用武装无人机造成更严重破坏的‘技术完善’或演练。
未来，其他国家也可能出现类似的无人机目击事件和干扰活动，这种情况并非不可能。
阿诺德表示：“俄罗斯人和伊朗人在某些行动中取得成功后会怎么做？他们会如法炮制。”
他认为，这类事件往往发生在最容易造成混乱的时段，比如圣诞节前后和暑假期间。犯罪分子和无人机操作员滋扰行为是当前极难防范的领域
如何才能阻止他们？
除了关闭受影响的机场外，还可以采取其他措施来防范无人机干扰。
击落无人机在技术上是可行的——尽管丹麦军方本周评估认为这对平民风险过高后，已否决了这一方案。
阿诺德解释道，击落无人机存在脱靶风险。"如果未能击中无人机，子弹可能会飞向其他方向，对公众构成威胁。"
相比之下，如果无人机携带武器并具备造成大规模破坏的能力，武装部队采取行动将其击落的可能性会大得多。
另一种选择是无人机干扰技术——通过发射电子信号切断设备与操作者的联系，使其失控或迫使其降落。
其他方法包括派出配备捕网的无人机进行拦截，甚至训练鹰隼等猛禽击落目标。2016年有消息披露，荷兰警方曾训练鹰类扑落未经授权的无人机并投入实战部署。
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